The stock market would attract more investors in 2013, while the real estate market would still be in its hibernation, according to Dr Dinh The Hien, an economist, when considering possible investment channels in the year.
The real estate market still cools: The real estate market in 2012 did not recover as expected by investors, while it bogged down further in the crisis. High inventories and weak liquidity have been hindering the recovery of the market. Since late 2011, apartment and land prices have been decreasing continuously. Especially, high end apartment prices have dropped dramatically by 50 percent. Real estate developers now think of pouring money into medium class projects and the housing projects for the poor, believing that this is the only way out for them. However, it’s still too early to say that the solution would rescue them. The real estate market would be gloomy at least until the end of the second quarter of 2013, because commercial banks, while hurrying to collect debts, would put real estate products on sale, which would keep the real estate prices at low levels because of the profuse supply. The demand would appear in the third quarter of the year, when the national economy begins recovering and the bank loans interest rates reach the deepest low. Meanwhile, the market strong recovery would be seen in late 2013. The stock market: 2012 was the toughest year for the stock market. However, the investment channel still could bring the profit of 16.8 percent in 2012, which was 40 percent higher than the profits made from bank deposits. The high profitability may help lure more investors to the market. The expected economic recovery in 2013 would help make the stock market prosper. Once foreign investors believe in Vietnam’s capability of recovering the economy, they would pour money into Vietnamese stocks. The stock price increases are expected to be seen in the second quarter of the year, which would make the VN Index exceed the threshold of 450 points in the third quarter of2013.The gold market: There would be up-and-down waves in 2013 following the recovery of the US economy and the dollar performance. However, the big gap between the domestic and foreign prices would bring disadvantages to domestic investors. Therefore, domestic investors should keep cautious with the investment channel. Bank deposits: This is always a profitable and safe investment channel. Depositing idle money at banks would be the choice of the most of people who prefer safe investment deals in the context of the current national economy with high risks. The current dong interest rates of 9 percent for less-than-12 month term deposits and 10 percent per annum for longer term deposits are considered “acceptable” to investors. However, the interest rates are expected to go down in the second or third quarter of 2013. Therefore, it would be better to deposit money for one year or more to enjoy higher interest rates. As for dollar deposits, the current interest rate is 2 percent per annum at maximum. The dong/dollar exchange rate is believed to be stabilised in the first half of 2013 thanks to the high foreign currency reserves, the slow imports increase, the profuse dollar supply thanks to the high volume of overseas remittance and foreign direct investment capital. However, it is very likely that the State Bank may consider depreciating the dong by the end of the first quarter of the year in order to help boost export and attract new investment capital.
